Making sense of the market recovery

The Covid-19 pandemic has dealt emerging markets a great challenge. The way out won't be easy, but all is not lost for patient investors.

Large TV screens showing financial market charts
"It is not only short-term economic damage that concerns investors. COVID-19 has dealt the harshest blows to the weakest in society."

Many investors are probably feeling uneasy contemplating the extraordinary recovery in world financial markets, as are we. The global equity index climbed by almost 18% last quarter, with the Nasdaq index rising by nearly double that1, but still global COIVD infections remain at or close to their daily highs, with lockdowns in some cases intensifying. As the IMF announces another major downgrade to global growth it is difficult to recall a time when sentiment across financial markets felt so at odds with economic and social pressures on the ground.

It is not only short-term economic damage that concerns investors. COVID-19 has dealt the harshest blows to the weakest in society – the poorest countries, the lowest paid, many minority groupings and the elderly all have and will suffer disproportionately. African economies, for example, will feel the 'heaviest hit since the 1970s' according to the IMF, while, in the UK, a recent McKinsey study showed that the regions of the country with the lowest hourly pay-rates also face the worst economic impact from lockdown. A long-term agenda of 'levelling up' to try and mitigate this rising inequality implies higher regional subsidies, greater onshoring of supply chains and, at some point, higher taxes – all critical issues for financial markets.

The speed and scale of the policy response still dominates

"Going forward though, if long-term economic and social scarring is to be mitigated, massive spending programmes and generous central banks will have to operate arm in arm, and in scale, for many years to come."

So, in the face of these challenges, what does the fact that US and many global markets just recorded their best quarter in 20 years tell us about the wisdom (if any) of markets?

First, of course, it reminds us just how awful the previous quarter was – in the darkest days of early March this year there were near breakdowns in the functioning of almost every financial asset. Illiquidity and extreme volatility simultaneously engulfed oil, commodity, credit and real estate markets and, for a few days, even threatened the liquidity of US treasuries and UK gilts.

Second, it reinforces the dramatic scale, speed and determination of today's central bankers in their efforts to reverse this. Led by Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, they copied much of the 2008/9 playbook but this time acting faster and in greater size (bond purchases today are running at three times the rate of the financial crisis). But it was also sheer inventiveness that saved individual markets. Take just two examples: the Federal Reserve rapidly established swap lines with a wide range of foreign central banks, preventing the terrifying prospect of the dollar liquidity crunch seen a decade earlier. Meanwhile, the decision not only to buy corporate bonds directly but also in the primary market, was itself revolutionary. It helped restart bond issuance as early as mid-May, with companies soon raising funds and plugging balance sheets, in near record volumes, across all major markets. Together they helped turned the March sell-off from one of the sharpest in bear market history to one of shortest.

Decile Position in Sector over 1, 3 and 5 years

Fund Synaptic Risk Rating 1 Year Sector Decile 3 Years Sector Decile 5 Years Sector Decile
Sarasin Globalsar Strategic P Acc1 Synaptic Risk Rating 2.9 7.45% 1 17.13% 1 37.03% 1
Sarasin Globalsar Dynamic P Acc2 Synaptic Risk Rating 3.7 7.43% 1 19.28% 1 42.64% 2
Sarasin Global Equity Real Return P Acc2 Synaptic Risk Rating 4.4 8.90% 1 27.73% 1 55.90% 1

Source: FE Analytics, Cumulative Performance Net of Fees up to 14.07.20. Fund Sector: 1 IA Mixed 20-60% Shares, 2 IA Mixed 40-85% Shares. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Third, after a shaky start, the politicians started spending, with the single-minded aim of protecting jobs and saving businesses – again they moved in size and at speed. Each deserves credit; in the UK Chancellor Sunak led the move to furlough jobs and to support the self-employed with effectively no limit. The US administration made direct income support payments to individuals in extraordinary size (it is estimated that 68% of recipients received payments in excess of lost income), while the Japanese, as so often, delivered the largest programme as a percentage of GDP. But, it was Europe that perhaps surprised the most – a revitalised German Chancellor (Angela Merkel), a newly appointed Commission Head (Ursula von der Leyen) and a lawyer turned central banker at the ECB (Christine Lagarde), together formed a remarkable team. Through their Next Generation EU Fund they promised that 750 billion euros, in addition to the EU Budget, would be distributed as loans and grants to needier countries. The details will be fiendishly complex and the pushback from frugal nations strong, but the common platform and the funding by EU bond issuance is a hugely positive step for the stability of the Euro, and one that would not likely have emerged, but for the crisis.

Finally, the global quest for a vaccine and for therapeutic treatment for COVID-19 are also happening at warp speed. News continues to rapidly accumulate; there are currently 194 vaccine candidates and over 300 other therapy candidates to tackle COVID, but the leading three candidates appear to be Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and the Oxford Jenner Institute, which are all pursuing RNA-based vaccines. The optimism in a complete cure could still be misplaced given there has never been a coronavirus vaccine, but there are good grounds to believe that there is likely to be a stream of incrementally helpful therapies that build on the early base of Remdesivir and Dexamethasone to better tackle the virus.

Monetary and fiscal policy will need to be synchronised for many years to come

These four events all go some way to explaining the contradictions we see today in the financial world and the real economy, and they underpin our decision to keep our equity weightings at neutral, despite the extent of the rally. Going forward though, if long-term economic and social scarring is to be mitigated, massive spending programmes and generous central banks will have to operate arm in arm, and in scale, for many years to come.

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  1. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond

Important information:

This document is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors.

There is no minimum investment period, though we would recommend that you view your investment as a medium to long term one (i.e. 5 to 10 years). Frequent political and social unrest in Emerging Markets, and the high inflation and interest rates this tends to encourage, may lead to sharp swings in foreign currency markets and stock markets.  There is also an inherent risk in the smaller size of many Emerging Markets, especially since this means restricted liquidity.  Further risks to bear in mind are restrictions on foreigners making currency transactions or investments. For efficient portfolio management the Fund may invest in derivatives. The value of these investments may fluctuate significantly, but the overall intention of the use of derivative techniques is to reduce volatility of returns. The Fund may also invest in derivatives for investment purposes.